![]() Sometimes referred to as the Denver Cyclone, this condition forms east of Denver when a low-level moist, southeasterly flowing air mass meets the Palmer Divide, a ridge that extends east of the Front Range between Denver and Colorado Springs. Heavy snow bands formed from the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone that rolled over Boulder, Denver and Aurora. Reported totals ranged from 6.3 inches in Denver to 10.5 inches in Aurora, with many stations reporting 8 to 9 inches. ![]() Like with Fort Collins, by Monday night the weather service doubled Denver's expected snowfall from its morning forecast, making the city's forecast total 8 to 12 inches. The weather service forecast for Boulder was 8 to 12 inches, and reported totals ranged from 8.3 to 10.5 inches. ![]() The National Weather Service forecast for Greeley predicted 6 to 8 inches of snow, and reports from the city ranged mostly from 5 to 8 inches. Greeley, Boulder, Denver forecast accuracy That forecast indicated Fort Collins had a 100% chance of seeing more than 2 inches of snow, 97% chance of more than 4 inches, 72% chance of more than 6 inches, 54% chance of more than 8 inches and 14% chance of more than 12 inches. The low-end forecast for Fort Collins was 5 inches, the high-end forecast was 12 inches and the expected amount was 10 inches. The weather service also has a feature called a probabilistic snowfall forecast that is a percentages-based model of varying snow totals for various cities in Colorado. On Monday, the National Weather Service forecast for Fort Collins was 4 to 6 inches, but the weather service doubled its forecast to 8 to 12 inches Monday evening as the storm approached. Reports from around the city varied from 7.5 inches to just more than 10 inches. View Gallery: Winter storm in Colorado: Fort Collins digs out from snow Fort Collins forecast accuracyįort Collins received 9 inches of snow during the two-day storm, with 1.2 inches on Tuesday and 7.8 inches Wednesday, according to the Colorado Climate Center. You might be surprised how accurate the forecast was. But let's take a look at the accuracy and lead time of the National Weather Service's snow total forecast for the biggest snowstorm this season for the Interstate 25 corridor. There are many TV and private business meteorologists in Colorado. Many people don't care about those things and just want an accurate weather forecast. This is mostly because of the influence of terrain, including the mountains, but also because of more subtle influencers such as the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge and the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone, which played a role in our most recent storm. The state is considered among the toughest regions to accurately forecast weather, according to experts. People love to complain about the weather and maybe even more so about the lack of accurate forecasting.ĭespite major advances in computer modeling in recent years, accurately forecasting snow and rain totals can be especially difficult in Colorado. Watch Video: Winter storm dumps on Fort Collins for Groundhog Day
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